MARKET OVERVIEW 2008:
The January 2008 market in Greater Victoria
burst out of the gate following an upbeat Dec.07 year-end.
There was a record-high average single family home price of
$624,450 in Dec.07 (due largely to the sale of 14 single
family homes over the $1 million mark), and Jan.08 followed
in close pursuit at $606,449, while Feb.08 relaxed to
$587,295 and Mar.08 resumed the upward trend with $597,176.
A new record was set in Apr.08 at $630,295 (that
month's sales included 28 properties over $1 million, and
two priced over $2 million).
The Greater Victoria real estate market
showed strong product turnover all year in 2007;
inventory at 2007 year-end was higher than at the
beginning of that year and in Jan.08 was 14% higher than
one year previous, 13% higher in Feb.08 than one
year previous, and 17% higher in Mar.08 (at 3,591
properties for sale) than one year ago.
During 2007 single
family home prices increased 8.5%, with condos up
over 11% and townhomes up 10.5%. This
surpassed the predictions, including that single family
homes would go up only about 3% to 5% during 2007.
CMHC's prediction
for 2008 property sale price increases is about 9% but
based on buyer ability to pay, a 3% to 5% price
increase in the marketplace seems reasonable for this year.
At the start of
2008,
sales volume was 12%
higher than in
the previous
year, single
family home
prices 8.5%
higher,
inventory higher
than last year's
January (by
about 108
properties), and the
average house
price sitting at over
$600,000.
Single Family
Homes (houses): At year-end 2007
the rolling 6-month average for single family homes was $581,419 -- below the record price but still
over half a million dollars, and double what the average
was only 5 years ago. In Jan.08 the 6-month
rolling average had increased by $5,000 (the same
monthly increment seen throughout fall 2007) to $586,338,
and was holding at that level in Feb.08 with a rolling
6-month average of $588,826. The rolling average jumped
by half the 2007-rate to $591,439 in Mar.08, but
increased over $15,000 in Apr.08 to $606,429.
Condos
did not set a
new price record
in 2007
($359,742 is the
latest record, seen
in Nov.06) but
came close in
Jan.08 at
$349,945. Condo
prices had relaxed
to $328,734 on
average by Mar.08, and were even lower i Apr.08 at
$326,983.
Townhomes did increase in price throughout 2007,
setting a new
record in Nov.07 at $474,150. The year
closed with a month's average sale price of $455,026 in
Dec.07; in Jan.08 the average was $423,348 which was
precisely on par with the 6-month rolling average at
$423,363, indicating a continuing rise in townhome
pricing, which did occur in Feb.08 with an
average sale price of $424,157 (and the highest yet
6-month rolling average, at $430,621). In Mar.08 at $457,344
had increased yet again (with a 6-month rolling average up by
$10,000 to $440,472). But in Apr.08 townhomes
averaged back at $420,917 (6-month average of $441,888).
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A
closer look at market details:
Single Family Homes:
Jan.-Apr.
2008
In Jan.08 the
average single family house price was $606,449. The 6-month
rolling average had increased by $5,000 from the
previous month (the same
monthly increment seen throughout fall 2007) to $586,338.
In Feb.08
prices were lower at $587,295
while the 6-month rolling average was holding strong
at $588,826.
By Mar.08
prices were heading upward again, reaching an average
of $597,176
while the 6-month rolling average at $591,439 was
also heading back up.
In Apr.08
single family homes set a new price record at $630,295
pushing the 6-month rolling average over the
$600,000 mark to $606,429.
Waterfront
homes, on average in
2007,
generally stayed
above the $1.2
million mark. At year-end 2007
the 6-month
rolling average
for waterfront
homes was $1,253,937, and in Jan.08 stayed in that range
and then some at $1,351,809 but dropped to only $620,667
in Feb.08 (an aberration) while restoring its usual
level in Mar.08 at $1,524,750 and at $1,255,769 in
Apr.08.
Condominiums:
Jan.-Apr.
2008
In 2008 condo prices
will likely remain above the $325,000 mark. The historical record
average price
is $359,742 (Nov.06) which, unless a lot of new-construction product
comes onto the market, may not be surpassed in
2008 (although Jan.08's average came close at $349,045).
Condo averages have headed downward all year -- Feb.08 at $334,047,
Mar.08 lower at 328,734, and Apr.08 showing the lowest
average this year at $325,975.
The year 2007 had closed
with a 6-month rolling average of $319,980 for condos in
Greater Victoria, up almost $7,000 in one month to $326,904
in Jan.08, and again up substantially in Feb.08/Mar.08 to $334,221
and $332,562 respectively. By Apr.08 $329,619 was reached as
the 6-month average.
Townhomes:
Jan.-Apr.
2008
Townhomes appear to
be remaining the $400,000 level, possibly even achieving
$425,000 as the ongoing threshold in 2008.
In Jan.08 the average townhome sale price was $423,348, with the 6-month rolling
average heading upward at $423,363.
In Feb.08 the average townhome sale price
inched upward to $424,157, with an increased 6-month
rolling average of $430,621.
In Mar.08 the average townhome
sale rose yet again to $457,344, with the 6-month
rolling average up a full $10,000 to a record $440,472.
In Apr.08 the
average townhome sale price was the lowest yet this year at
$420,917. The 6-month average sat at $441,888.
The record average
townhome price remains as
$474,150 (Nov.07) which was quite a one-month jump from the
previous new record of $413,615 in Oct.07.
The strong trend for townhome
ownership reflects in part the perceived or relative unaffordability
of single family homes, with townhomes offering the
closest option for privacy, square footage and yard area. There is
also an identifiable trend on the part of baby-boomers to
downsize to townhomes (and condos) from larger homes.
Manufactured Homes:
1st Quarter 2008
In Jan.08 the
average sale price for manufactured homes
averaged at $118,993, notably below the 6-month
rolling average of $127,262.
Manufactured homes averaged
at a much higher (record) level in Feb.08 at $154,423,
yet still trailing with a lower 6-month
rolling average of $126,724.
In Mar.08 the
average manufactured homes sale price was $123,600,
with a 6-month
rolling average back on the upswing at $128,121.
In Apr.08 the
average manufactured homes sale price was $136,595,
with a 6-month
rolling average maintaining at $127,216.
Modular
(manufactured) homes in
Greater Victoria are
frequently located in View Royal,
Central Saanich, Sidney, Langford and Sooke; for some buyers
they are a suitable short-term or down-sizing option.
Lynne's MARKET SUMMARY
Year to Date:
click
here
PRICE GRAPHS for the
past 2 years:
click
here
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